The China Game: The Dragon in Africa
Clem Sunter
Clem Sunter
Not 48 hours after he had entertained and stimulated a packed lecture hall, those who’d been present were reminded of Clem Sunter’s observation that “Africa is China’s country of choice”, when a 20% stake in the Standard Bank was taken up by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.
Sunter had addressed a RIBS Business Forum in his trademark and inimitable style on the topic of “The Dragon in Africa”.
This sounded more sinister than it was, although Sunter, long-serving scenario-planner par excellence in the Anglo American group, was certainly advising those who wish successfully to entertain advances from that nation, which boasts the world’s fastest growing economy, to ‘get of bed early’. He and several colleagues had recently returned from an intensive series of interviews and exploratory meetings in China.
As a result he had sound advice for the students present as well as for the many other academics and business people who attended the Forum. Examples were well-illustrated by anecdotes, several of which were extremely amusing, which served to amplify his point that the Chinese are now aggressively exploring business and investment opportunities rights across our continent; not only in South Africa. “They’ll happily take what’s on offer”, he commented, “and it is entirely up to local businessmen, industrialists, entrepreneurs and, of course, bankers to structure in some reciprocal benefit when negotiating”. There are massive opportunities, he believes, in, for instance, infrastructural developments which will remain long after the end of a 25-year lease expires and which can be built in to agreements.
But perhaps the most valuable and stimulating concept which he left to his audience was through sharing the way in which he and his colleagues conduct their interviews. They have an efficient and proven series of seven categories within which their questions are posed. The process works well, was admired by those with whom he came into contact, and would prove just as effective within our own national economy.
Starting with an enquiry as to the state of the playing field – how level? – and followed by “Who are the players” the sequence then explores the “Rules of the Game”, identifying a range of influences and constraints. “You have to have connections” is one of these; “you are who you know”, says Sunter. “And the rules can change during play”, he warned, “which makes life interesting!” A factor of growing influence here is the changing social attitudes towards the policy limiting families to bearing just one child.
A further question, “What are the surprises?” identified for the interviewers six uncertainties which worry planners in China. These include concerns that the United States’ economy is heading for a depression; its ‘War on Terror” (“Will they invade Iran and push the oil price to $200 a barrel?”); the impact on commodity prices by the depletion of the world’s natural resources; social unrest in China and, increasingly, environmental pollution in Chinese cities. Significantly, too, the consequences of global warming are demanding more attention.
The final questions call for a prediction of potential outcomes. The official line, Sunter was told, is “An Harmonious Wealth”. Unofficially, however, there is mention of a “fragmented world”. Lastly, the interviewees are asked to elaborate on their thoughts on and understanding of, the concept of winning.
If the calibre of questions asked of a speaker is indicative of the quality of his address, this one was excellent. Sunter arrived somewhat late, due to problems at the airport but was certainly forgiven by his audience who, thoroughly informed and entertained, were happy to buy some of his popular books. The latest in the “Fox” series which he co-authors with Chantell Illbury, Socrates and the Fox, has recently been published.
