In February, the United States noted its concern with the South African government that a US-sanctioned Russian cargo ship, Lady R, had docked at a South African naval base for three days in December.
It appears the SA government did what it generally does best and remained silent because last week US ambassador Reuben Brigety decided to drop a very public bombshell allegation that we may have supplied arms to Russia. This saw our government spur into action, announcing that an inquiry would be set up.
Brigety was hauled in for a tongue lashing with International Relations and Cooperation Minister Naledi Pandor.
The department said the ambassador had apologised but didn't clarify about what. It was later revealed that he had told the minister he regretted not using the correct diplomatic channels, but his claim stood.
In the midst of the US-SA crisis, Russia pulled the carpet from under South Africa's feet, announcing that our army officials were in Moscow. Any further claims of non-alignment started to look a little silly from here on out. This all came on the back of allowing a Russian plane, under US sanctions, to recently land at Waterkloof Military Base, and SA taking part in war games with Russia and China on the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
South Africa may well be innocent in the Lady R scandal but we won't know until the inquiry is wrapped up. Several military experts have told News24 that it is unlikely that such an arms transaction happened. The Russian military uses a different calibre of weaponry to the SA National Defence Force and as criminologist Guy Lamb wrote in a recent analysis article, many procurement procedures would have had to be overridden, key ministers bypassed, and bribery at a grand and sophisticated scale would have had to have taken place for such a scandal to have happened.
As the United States finds itself in an increasingly multipolar world, it may be using the allegations into bullying us to take a position, but South Africa can hardly claim it has made good on its word that it is non-aligned - not when several incidents which the government has not explained very well have cropped up.
In this week's Friday Briefing, we examine if the Lady R scandal is our tipping point.
Author and journalist John Matisonn writes that the mood in Washington towards South Africa has changed in the last two months following these incidents. The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act is up for renewal in 2025, and it won't be up to Brigety or US President Joe Biden, but up to the Senate and Congress on whether or not we will continue to benefit from the agreement.
Rhodes Institute of Social and Economic Research's Professor Nhlanhla Cyril Mbatha reflects how in 2015, SA faced similar threats from the US over whether it would renew AGOA or not. He argues, though, that in this case it is the first time we've been threatened over a political development. The stakes on the job loss front are also much higher than they were in 2015 if the US chooses not to renew AGOA.
Futurologist Clem Sunter writes that as the war in Ukraine grinds on into its second year, the international situation could become even more polarised if the West seeks to isolate Russia further from the world. He says this could have implications for BRICS alliance members in terms of trading with Russia and cooperation in other areas.
Finally, the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation's Professor Tim Murithi takes another view and examines how a failure to reform the international system has led to many African states choosing to remain non-aligned in Russia's war with Ukraine. He adds that attempts to cajole or strong-arm these countries into picking a side over the war in Ukraine are bound to fail since no one in Africa believes that the international order is based on rules.
Hope you enjoy the read before your weekend.
Best,
Vanessa Banton
Opinions editor.
Link to article: https://www.news24.com/news24/opinions/fridaybriefing/friday-briefing-ladyrussiagate-sas-tipping-point-20230518