Title: Hydrological Uncertainty Analysis and Scenario-Based Streamflow Modelling for the Congo River Basin
Student: Raphael  Muamba Tshimanga  
Country of origin: Democratic Republic of Congo
University: Rhodes University
Degree:  PhD (Hydrology)
Supervisor: Prof. Denis Hughes
Year of registration: 2009
Student number: 609T6969

Hydrological modelling is used to understand and quantify the processes taking place at the catchment level, for the purpose of water resources management and development. This is not achieved without a certain degree of uncertainty, leading some times to high risk in decision making. In general, the various sources of uncertainty stem from limitation of the hydrological data, errors introduced by the measurement itself, temporal and spatial discretization of measurements, inadequacies of the model structure and model parameters, and the uncertainty due to unknown initial conditions. A realistic assessment of the various sources of uncertainties and quantification of their magnitude is relevant for science-based decision making and may help reduce, if not avoid, the related risks. This study establishes a framework of identifiability analysis and uncertainty analysis with regards to data development and conceptual modelling for the Congo River Basin. In recognition of the sources of uncertainty for the hydrological modelling in the basin, the study identifies the natural randomness, the methods of estimates of the hydrological parameters, and the anthropogenic and climate change inferences. Furthermore, the study analyses a set of scenarios for future development options of water resources in the basin.

Last Modified: Tue, 18 Aug 2015 11:43:48 SAST